Deadline 2021: Re-United | October, 8th - 10th | Berlin, Germany
category: residue [glöplog]
@Gargaj
Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID- 19: An overview of systematic evaluations
Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID- 19: An overview of systematic evaluations
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Acknowledging residual uncer-tainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5- 2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infec-tion spread across continents, countries and locations.
That Ioannidis-study that totally hasn't been called out being bullshit.
Just do the math: the case fatality rate across the world isn't .1%, the death rate is! The only way .1% IFR would make sense if literally everyone in the world was infected by COVID at least once.
Just do the math: the case fatality rate across the world isn't .1%, the death rate is! The only way .1% IFR would make sense if literally everyone in the world was infected by COVID at least once.
could you (and kb, and gargaj, and others) refrain from posting symbol pics. In my observation that helps with sane discussions.
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That Ioannidis-study that totally hasn't been called out being bullshit.
Just do the math: the case fatality rate across the world isn't .1%, the death rate is! The only way .1% IFR would make sense if literally everyone in the world was infected by COVID at least once.
That article reads like a biased hit piece, not a scientific refutal of Ioannidis' his work. The 0,15% was even confirmed by the head of our National Institute for Public Health and Environment. I would like to see an actual scientific paper refuting Ioannidis his claims, until then he remains on of the most influential scientists alive today. Even the WHO published his first paper last year.
Your "math" only works if you assume that all registered Covid deaths actually died of Covid, which is simply not true. The PCR test is not meant for clinical diagnosis and cannot differentiate between live or dead virus. On top of that, hospitals have a financial incentive to register Covid patients because they get more money for Covid patients. The raw death numbers are likely highly inflated because of this.
The moment you mentioned finances, I can no longer assume good faith.
Question. Has anybody in your circle of friends/family/acquaintances have had covid and had severe complications or had died?
I had it, it was horrible and I had a mild case. I was out for 4 weeks and am still batteling the post-covid effects 9 months later.
A colleague was on respiration and barely survived. And I know of family members of other people I know that died of covid. And no, they weren't sick to begin with and weren't 80+ years old.
This is not the flu, this is not a joke and it is not a conspiracy. It's just your run of the mill pandemic that infects and kills people. It is how it is and it is OUR responsibility to try to neither deny it nor deny the work of the scientific community to try to eradicate it. If you don't want to take the risk of the vaccine - fine. That's your call.
Personally I have no intentions of either having it again or risk giving it to others because I see that as my personal responsibility until we have reached some kind of herd immunity or we reach a state of "acceptable risk" - which we have not arrived at yet.
Kudos to Deadline for going that way, it's reasonable and responsible. Same as with all restaurants in Germany and other venues that require a negative test or a vaccination certificate it's sensible to be prepared.
If you haven't main organized an event (demoparty or otherwise) you have no idea what kind of responsibility is is to do it as safely as possible. And if current and future times require that kind of safety restrictions I'm all for it because it makes our community safer. If that means that you cannot participate for the time being, is it NOT because organizers are trying to discriminate anybody, it's about medical health and safety.
Your arguments sound similar to things like "if you won't fuck me without a condom it is discrimination" which is maybe a metaphor that's more understandable.
I had it, it was horrible and I had a mild case. I was out for 4 weeks and am still batteling the post-covid effects 9 months later.
A colleague was on respiration and barely survived. And I know of family members of other people I know that died of covid. And no, they weren't sick to begin with and weren't 80+ years old.
This is not the flu, this is not a joke and it is not a conspiracy. It's just your run of the mill pandemic that infects and kills people. It is how it is and it is OUR responsibility to try to neither deny it nor deny the work of the scientific community to try to eradicate it. If you don't want to take the risk of the vaccine - fine. That's your call.
Personally I have no intentions of either having it again or risk giving it to others because I see that as my personal responsibility until we have reached some kind of herd immunity or we reach a state of "acceptable risk" - which we have not arrived at yet.
Kudos to Deadline for going that way, it's reasonable and responsible. Same as with all restaurants in Germany and other venues that require a negative test or a vaccination certificate it's sensible to be prepared.
If you haven't main organized an event (demoparty or otherwise) you have no idea what kind of responsibility is is to do it as safely as possible. And if current and future times require that kind of safety restrictions I'm all for it because it makes our community safer. If that means that you cannot participate for the time being, is it NOT because organizers are trying to discriminate anybody, it's about medical health and safety.
Your arguments sound similar to things like "if you won't fuck me without a condom it is discrimination" which is maybe a metaphor that's more understandable.
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The moment you mentioned finances, I can no longer assume good faith.
Give me a break, are you really telling me that our health care system is not completely corrupted by financial interests? It's controlled by the pharmaceutical companies and insurance companies, and they are not exactly known for their "ethics". Just look at the opioid epidemic if you want to know how these corporations operate.
@D.fox
Yes I know of plenty of people who had and nobody ended up in the hospital. I know of one death of an otherwise healthy person, not in my immediate circle, who probably just got unlucky or didn't receive the right treatment (this was early 2020). The risk group for Covid-19 is very well established; people who are over 70 and people who are overweight. There are of course more risk factors but these two seem to be the most important. I'm all for protecting people at risk, but not at the cost of everybody else.
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It is how it is and it is OUR responsibility to try to neither deny it nor deny the work of the scientific community to try to eradicate it. If you don't want to take the risk of the vaccine - fine. That's your call.
There is no way we will ever eradicate it, it is here to stay no matter what we do. In fact we might make it worse in our attempt to eradicate it.
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it's about medical health and safety.
I believe in freedom over safety. People are more than capable of making up their own minds as long as the information they are getting is transparent and honest, which it's not.
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"if you won't fuck me without a condom it is discrimination"
Except a condom actually works, most of the time.
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I believe in freedom over safety. People are more than capable of making up their own minds as long as the information they are getting is transparent and honest, which it's not.
If you believe that, then you should believe and support the freedom of the deadline organizers to impose these restrictions. You know, equality!
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If you don't want to take the risk of the vaccine - fine. That's your call. [...] Kudos to Deadline for going that way, it's reasonable and responsible. Same as with all restaurants in Germany and other venues that require a negative test or a vaccination certificate it's sensible to be prepared.
That's not how Deadline announced it though: "we will only allow vaccinated people to participate in person".
That's not what politicians and private sector move towards to (in germany).
Vaccination is cool to enhance protection of the individual and reducing transmission, but with delta-variant on the rise testing should be gold standard for admission, not vaccination:
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In July 2021, following multiple large public events in a Barnstable County, Massachusetts, town, 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents who had traveled to the town during July 3–17; 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated persons. Testing identified the Delta variant in 90% of specimens from 133 patients. Cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.
Source - CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
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Quote:"if you won't fuck me without a condom it is discrimination"
Except a condom actually works, most of the time.
So the 90+ efficiency of the vaccines is not good enough for you to save your own life? Ok.
LJ:
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well as said before the on-premise safety concept is not decided yet, as it will be dependant on the situation then, so we want to finalize like 2 weeks before the party, but it will include at the minimum free (optional) self-tests and we would advise people to take a test at their arrival and before they leave as an additional precaution. (Thanks to UC for sponsoring the tests!)
LJ: Be prepared for Revision to require both - not either. But since we have no idea what'll happen until then, we'll see...
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I have a friend in his 30s who already have had it twice, he had it pretty bad the first time. I have another friend in his early 40s who considers himself partly disabled after the covid (he had it very bad, had to be resuscitated twice). Another friend have had it recently, she is in her 30s, had a mild form. My grandmother have had a "mild" form and was bedridden for several weeks. Our family friends have had it bad (two of them had to be hospitalized, still battling some after effects even half-a-year later). My father's death last summer may well have been caused by it too.Question. Has anybody in your circle of friends/family/acquaintances have had covid and had severe complications or had died?
So, yeah. It does not feel like a joke to me.
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So the 90+ efficiency of the vaccines is not good enough for you to save your own life? Ok.
Except it looks like the vaccines are nowhere near that effective anymore and we will be needing boosters in perpetuity. Also for me personally the risks of vaccine side effects, albeit rare but sufficiently bad, do not weigh up to the risks of getting Covid.
yo don't get the vaccine and don't go to the party, it is as simple as that
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yo don't get the vaccine and don't go to the party, it is as simple as that
That's the simplest solution indeed.
Now that everyone's happily discussing this or that paper I'd like to introduce another view on the issue: excess mortality in Germany since the start of the pandemic.
This is the unfiltered end result of COVID. Feel free to add your own country and change the parameters. The site has documented the official sources of all the data you're seeing on the site.
Please note that Germany in its worst period (before vaccine availability) reported about 40% excess deaths compared to averaged values from the years 2015-2019! Of course this baseline had flu outbreaks as well and so you can observe the real effect of the pandemic compared to a normal flu-only year. In other words: comparing this virus to the flu means to grossly misinterpret the facts. Assuming no malintent, probably fueled by run-of-the-mill confirmation bias.
This is the unfiltered end result of COVID. Feel free to add your own country and change the parameters. The site has documented the official sources of all the data you're seeing on the site.
Please note that Germany in its worst period (before vaccine availability) reported about 40% excess deaths compared to averaged values from the years 2015-2019! Of course this baseline had flu outbreaks as well and so you can observe the real effect of the pandemic compared to a normal flu-only year. In other words: comparing this virus to the flu means to grossly misinterpret the facts. Assuming no malintent, probably fueled by run-of-the-mill confirmation bias.
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If you believe that, then you should believe and support the freedom of the deadline organizers to impose these restrictions. You know, equality!
The very first thing I said was: "Your party, your rules". I have doubts about the legality and the ethics behind the decision but in the end it's up to the Deadline Orgas.
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yo don't get the vaccine and don't go to the party, it is as simple as that
Believe me I will stay very far away from parties that require either a vaccine, a test, or both. Me visiting or not is not the point of this discussion.
What is your point? On your youtube channel I see you recorded and shared a demonstration at the malieveld featuring Willem Engel. I don't think there is any point discussing this with people this far removed from reality.
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I have doubts about the legality and the ethics behind the decision but in the end it's up to the Deadline Orgas.
It's perfectly legal. It's not among the exhaustive list of forbidden criteria.
Also, since venues will have to generally check vaccination/test status anyway (and can thus easily tell whether someone is vaccinated or just tested), I can't see any problem with this either.
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What is your point? On your youtube channel I see you recorded and shared a demonstration at the malieveld featuring Willem Engel. I don't think there is any point discussing this with people this far removed from reality.
The point is that I think this kind of segregation is ethically bankrupt. And yes I've been to several demonstration, mostly to see with my own eyes what goes on there and not rely on the media to tell me what happened. You should try it sometime. And I recorded the whole thing without editing so people can make up their own mind.
And can I still think that Willem Engel is a creep and potentially great cult leader and still have my own thoughts on this situation? Or doesn't that align with your black and white world view?
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Indeed unfiltered, would include indirect deaths due to neglected treatment for unrelated illnesses and other anti-COVID measures collateral casualties, etc. - just noting this because it leaves open a lot of angles to argue either way.Now that everyone's happily discussing this or that paper I'd like to introduce another view on the issue: excess mortality in Germany since the start of the pandemic.
This is the unfiltered end result of COVID.
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Quote:What is your point? On your youtube channel I see you recorded and shared a demonstration at the malieveld featuring Willem Engel. I don't think there is any point discussing this with people this far removed from reality.
The point is that I think this kind of segregation is ethically bankrupt. And yes I've been to several demonstration, mostly to see with my own eyes what goes on there and not rely on the media to tell me what happened. You should try it sometime. And I recorded the whole thing without editing so people can make up their own mind.
And can I still think that Willem Engel is a creep and potentially great cult leader and still have my own thoughts on this situation? Or doesn't that align with your black and white world view?
Are you saying an anti corona measurements demonstration should be used a source of information? And on what did you base your assumptions that I use media as my main source of information? How do you know?
Krill: so your point is that COVID could perhaps be comparable to the flu after all because it's really the fault of the politicians and their short sighted decisions?
Please feel free to openly embarrass yourself but don't expect me to contribute to that discussion.
Please feel free to openly embarrass yourself but don't expect me to contribute to that discussion.